IMD says monsoon in August-September to be 'normal', contradicts Skymet
Days after private weather forecasting agency, Skymet, predicted 'below normal' rains in the remaining two months of the southwest monsoon season 2018, state-run India Meteorological Department (IMD) contradicted it saying that rains in August and September would be 'normal' at 95 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA).
The forecast is with a model error of plus and minus 8 per cent.
The Met department said in a statement that the rains in August are expected to be normal and even higher than what was predicted in June when the weather office came out with its forecast for regional distribution. IMD said monsoon rain is expected to be 96 per cent of the LPA. The forecast is with a model error of plus and minus 9 per cent.
During the last two months, IMD said there is 63 per cent chance of monsoon being normal and a 47 per cent probability of it being below normal.
"Mid-season rainfall scenario realised over the country till the end of July 2018 suggests that distribution of rainfall is very good overall parts of the country except Bihar, Jharkhand and NE States. Such a scenario of favourable distribution of rainfall is expected to continue during rest of monsoon season of 2018 so as to remain favourable for agricultural operations," IMD said.
Yesterday, the Met department in its weekly weather update said that the southwest monsoon is expected to be normal to above normal over East and North-East India along with Uttar Pradesh during the first week of August and thereafter increase its presence the along the North-Western parts of the country and also South Peninsular India, latest weather update from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday.
The forecast came a day after private weather forecasting agency, Skymet predicted a prolonged weak monsoon phase that will lower the overall monsoon forecast for 2018 to 'below normal' from the current forecast of them being ‘normal’.
“The Southwest Monsoon is likely to go into a prolonged weak phase during August. Also, break Monsoon conditions are expected during this period,” Skymet said in a mid-season monsoon forecast.
Both the rainiest pockets of Northeast India and West Coast are likely to perform poorer than usual, Skymet said.
However, IMD in its weekly weather update said that monsoon at least in NE India over the next two weeks monsoon will remain active.
August rains, according to Skymet, could be 88 per cent of LPA which is 'deficient' and September rains could be 93 per cent of the LPA which is also below normal but slightly better than August.
In June and July, the southwest monsoon was 6 per cent below normal largely due to a break in rains in June after it made a promising start. So far, the rains have been normal in around 84 per cent of the country’s landmass so far in the season, and deficient in the rest.
Meanwhile, the latest data from Central Water Commission (CWC) showed that water level in the 91-odd reservoirs continued to rise and during the week ended August 2 was 45 per cent of their full capacity level.
Since, July 19, the water level in the reservoirs have increased by over 13 per cent, which should augur well for coming rabi season mainly in those parts which are dependent on reservoirs for irrigation.